DTEK Renewables has launched a trial operation of its own power generation forecasting algorithm for its power plants, which is currently being used for Tiligulska WEP. This allows energy system dispatchers to obtain more accurate indicators of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and improves the efficiency of managing the Ukrainian energy system.
The estimated rates of electricity generation from solar and wind power plants must be provided several hours in advance to the system operator, Ukrenergo company. Its dispatchers, in turn, use this information to ensure the balancing and stability of the energy system.
Professional generation forecasting services for DTEK Renewables are provided by 3 leading international companies. However, the company's team of specialists, having realised the imperfection of the data received, began to look for ways to improve the level of forecasting using their own developments.
In 2024, with the support of colleagues who were working on the analytics of the data provided, the algorithms were modified and proved to show good results. And in 2025, the pilot operation of this project started at Tiligulska WEP.
Over the six months of providing forecasted generation data, DTEK Renewables' own development has a 23% better forecast than the one received from one of the international companies.
To translate these percentages into figures, over the six-month monitoring period, the company reduced imbalances to the Guaranteed Buyer SE by 23% or 10.43 GW, and imbalances to the day-ahead market by 12% or 6.75 GW.
Apart from the benefits for the stability of the power system, this development has a positive economic effect for the company. It allows us to reduce payments for imbalances, which are charged in case of large discrepancies between the forecasted and actual electricity production at DTEK Renewables companies.
The project was developed by Kostiantyn, software developer and technical supervision and commissioning manager at DTEK Renewables. He paid most of his efforts to the project in his off-hours as a hobby.
"My grandfather is an honoured rationaliser of Uzbekistan, so I probably got this thirst for change and innovation from him. This is a very interesting project for me and an important one for the country, which works for the stability of the energy system. Although I am not an IT specialist, and the project was mostly done in my free time, the outstanding results inspire me to further improve and increase my expertise in IT technologies," says Kostiantyn.
The trial operation of DTEK Renewables' proprietary forecasting technology is an intermediate stage on the way to implementing the algorithm in full operation. Currently, the algorithm calculates the required wind generation parameters for Tiligulska WEP, which simultaneously uses data from contractors for forecasting.
"The company's specialists often initiate ideas that allow us to improve or launch innovative solutions in our work processes. This is what happened in the area of electricity production forecasting. For more than eight months now, the project has consistently shown better results than the three forecasts of European companies. We are planning to put the project into commercial operation in October," said Oleh Solovei, Deputy CEO of DTEK Renewables.
